Vital sources offer bold money forecasts
12/23/2008 By Thom Calandra
New monarchy rules fields left barren by fleeing analysts
A Salem’s Lot of fresh faces is replacing traditional analysts in global markets the world over.
The new names are especially strong in the areas of natural resources, life sciences and energy, industries filled with capital vacuums that evaporate vast amounts of cash.
The best of the new lot have been practicing their crafts for 10 or more years. Some of the names, such as emerging markets specialist Marc Faber in Hong Kong, are established authors and money managers who specialize in the dark side of life.
Others, such as metals economist and GoldMoney operator James Turk in New Hampshire, are well off the radar screens of all but the most fine-tooth-combed investors. Well groomed Mr. Turk sees gold miners lowering their expenses markedly in 2009.
All of the new folks are in the tradition of Morgan Stanley economist Stephen S. Roach, whose year 2000 verbal flares and incessant tracking of current account deficits alerted many alternative investors to the credit crisis engulfing the planet.
The new “seers” are largely ink-stained writers and itty-bitty money managers with few if any affiliations to large banks and brokerages. Roach is an exception.
A solid example in the area of energy is author, medical doctor and money manager Joe Duarte in Dallas. He excels at interpreting events that few of us notice, such as the widening spreads between the prices of Brent Crude Oil and Texas Intermediate.
Some of the keenest observers offer the bulk of their research for free. Others levy subscription rates that are all over the map in price.
Some prefer to stay in the background because of “day jobs” that are sensitive in nature. I keep in touch with a former bullion analyst whose name is known by everyone in the metals business. This living legend, and a decent jogger to boot, prefers not to be named yet regularly names metals and commodities trends that make real people extreme amounts of money.
My favorite sauces (not sources mind you) are largely in the areas of gold, platinum, silver (which is still sporting a backwards forward rate), and in life sciences and energy. These areas are sprawling industries that require regular refreshers from “The Shining” few.
The “Carrie” Trade
My latest gotta-read – I feel like author Stephen King telling us about his favorite new books, TV shows and discs in Entertainment Weekly – is a free life-sciences publication. The Journal of Life Sciences from California merchant bank Burrill & Co. is free online.
The new report’s advisory board is a who’s who of venture capital, biomedical science and editorial excellence. The online version regularly tracks pharmaceutical alliances, mergers and dilemmas such as an ongoing debate about the diagnostic tests and how they are used to determine markers of personalized medicine. The publication’s metrics in terms of market share for big and small pharmaceutical products and for expiring patents are potent.
A few of my favorites are actually data sites, such as the forward gold and silver rates that can be seen each day at the London Bullion Metals Association site and in our ThomWatch articles.
Forward rates are virtually unknown outside the arcane world of metals leasing and dollar swaps. The statistics easily could live with the undead in a netherworld. The forward rates are percentages at which gold holders and traders will lend the metal in a swap transaction against U.S. currency. They are telling us currently that bullion is undergoing dramatic accumulation and that prices of physical gold and silver, coins and bars, soon will rise sharply in price against most currencies.
Most investors, like most of us who like their apple sauce each day, can spend a lifetime ingesting all of them. The sauces seem endless, especially now that the Square Mile, Yonge Street and Wall Street “experts” are “disappeared” from their laptops and screens and discredited close to the point of being publicly boiled in vats of bubbling apple sauce.
As a Thommyknocker who has tracked sauces for more than 25 years, mostly as a journalist on several continents, I tend to keep my gotta-do list to 10 or fewer. Some I point to here in this free ThomWatch, which will return next week.
Other sauces and strategies for planetary profits, because of their high risk characteristics, are discussed only in the subscriber-only service Ticker Trax By Thom Calandra™.
Our bullion logic in subscribers’ Ticker Trax By Thom Calandra™ is well documented. Physical gold is almost surely on its way to an inflation-adjusted high, which is approximately $2,500 (based on a January 1980 high of $870 an ounce).
Platinum’s price will far outstrip the gold price at some point in the next two years. “Junk silver” will become the savior of consumers who still have small change they are willing to spend. A handful of small miners poised to produce physical gold will see their valuations soar as investors in Geneva, London and Toronto take notice of the new, cheaply-produced ounces pulled from the ground.
Several life sciences developers of new (and existing) molecular compounds will enjoy raging success after having “disappeared” most of their investors’ cash.
That is it for now. Paying subscribers of Ticker Trax™ are now in possession of our first planetary prospect. The notice was delivered by electronic missive to the Ticker Trax™ audience. (See: www.TickerTrax.com.)
On The Ticker Trax™
Ticker Trax By Thom Calandra™ explores planet Earth for those few stakes that offer the prospect of excellent, in some cases cosmic, returns. It is for those who are entirely at ease with stratospheric levels of risk in a handful of planetary prospects (Please see www.TickerTrax.com for charter sign-up).
Please see inaugural sample issue of Ticker Trax™. Bonus: Please take a look at the Ticker Trax™ discussion group on Stockhouse.
HOLDINGS: Thom’s cosmos of holdings is listed for free Stockhouse members on www.Stockhouse.com under the “portfolio setting” for user TCALANDRA. He and his family also own recently minted gold coins. Thom is a long-term believer in bullion and platinum. For more ThomWatch, please click here.
THOM’S STORY: Thom Calandra helped his audience find value in a quagmire of investment choices. He also settled a valid complaint with the U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission in 2005. Thom co-founded CBS MarketWatch, MarketWatch.com and FT MarketWatch in Europe. As the voice of Thom Calandra's StockWatch and The Calandra Report, Thom fancied $300-ounce gold before that metal became an investment rage. Thom visited bioscience companies, metals mines and scores of thin-crust pie joints across the planet in a search for profit, fashion and pizze de trippa gorgonzola. Thom's novel PABLO BY NUMBERS was completed in summer 2008.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Thom Calandra
For a wide-ranging interview with Thom, please see Stockhouse's series of articles: Taking Stock of Thom. He and his family live in Tiburon, California. Visit his web homes at www.thomcalandra.com and thomcalandra.blogspot.com.
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